The dream that half the country's population had been dreaming of for years now seems to be coming true. After being passed by the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Parliament, the reservation bill giving 33 percent seats to women in the Lok Sabha and the Assembly has now been introduced in the Rajya Sabha i.e. the Upper House on Thursday. Looking at the current situation, it is expected that this bill will also be passed by the Rajya Sabha, but women will not be able to get the reservation to contest 33 percent seats in the 2024 elections. In such a situation, the question is when will women get the benefits of this system?
While presenting the Nari Shakti Vandan Bill in the Lok Sabha, Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal had made it clear that the women's reservation law will not be implemented until the census and delimitation is done in the country. Union Home Minister Amit Shah had also indicated during the discussion on the bill in the Lok Sabha that after being passed by the Parliament, this bill will come into effect after the year 2029. Home Minister Amit Shah explained in detail why the Women's Reservation Bill cannot be implemented in the country without census and delimitation.
Reservation provision in Article 330
Amit Shah said that the provision for reservation in Parliament is in Article 330, similarly the provision for reservation in Assemblies is in Article 332. Both these reservations apply to Scheduled Castes and Tribes. He said that if one-third of the seats have to be reserved, then who will decide? For this, census and delimitation is necessary. Also said that after the elections in 2024, there will be immediate vote counting and delimitation?
Answering the question raised by opposition party leaders as to why the Delimitation Commission for women's reservation and the delay in the census, Amit Shah said that in the existing Constitution, three categories of MPs are elected. The first is the general category, which also includes our OBCs. The second category is of SC and the third category is of ST. In these three categories, 33 percent reservation has been made for women. Along with this, the Union Home Minister also said in clear words that women's reservation will become a reality after 2029.
Modi government has made it clear that women's reservation will be implemented in the country only after census and delimitation. This means that first of all the census will be conducted in the country and only after that delimitation will be done, only then women will be able to get 33 percent reservation in Lok Sabha and Assembly. It will take a long time to complete this entire process, because the census has to be done now and after that something has to happen somewhere.
Difficult to implement the law in 2024
The census in the country was to be held in 2021, but it has not been done yet. While answering a question in the Lok Sabha, Amit Shah said that the census will be conducted after 2024. Supreme Court lawyer Abhishek Rai also says that after the Women's Reservation Bill is passed by the Parliament, it will take a long time to be implemented. He has said that it will take at least two years to complete the census process. In this way, women's reservation will not be implemented under any circumstances in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Delimitation of seats will not be possible without completion of the census process. In this way, not only the 2024 Lok Sabha elections but also the assembly elections of states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Himachal, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, Bihar will be held without women's reservation. Not only this, women will not be able to get reservation in the five states of the country that will be held this year and the law will not be implemented in these five states that will be held again after five years.
Delimitation will happen in 2026!
While presenting the bill, Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal had also made it clear that to implement the Women's Reservation Act, we will have to wait for the completion of the tenure of the Lok Sabha. It cannot be implemented during the tenure of the Assembly or Lok Sabha. In such a situation, even if the census and subsequent delimitation will be done in 2026, we will have to wait till 2029 to implement this law, because the next elections will be held in 2029. The census and delimitation process may take about seven to eight years. Meanwhile, there will be no provision of reservation for women in the upcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
84th constitutional amendment during Vajpayee's tenure
However, during the tenure of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the 84th Constitutional Amendment was made, in which it was decided that the delimitation of Lok Sabha and Assembly seats would not be done till 2026. In this way the process of delimitation will happen only after 2026. The census process will take one and a half to two years. If the census starts after 2024, it will take time till 2026 to complete. If the delimitation process takes place in 2026 using the 2021 census data as the basis, then it will take one to one and a half years to redraw the Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies in terms of population. In this way, the women of the country will not be able to get the benefit of reservation even in the 2029 elections.
At the time of the constitutional amendment for delimitation in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, it was decided that the first census will be conducted after 2026 and its data will be released and after that the delimitation will take place. In this context, the first census after 2026 will be held in 2031. In this context, if it happens then it may take even longer time for women's reservation. In this context, women will get the benefit of reservation in the Lok Sabha elections in 2034.
Women reservation is valid only for 15 years
Interestingly, women's reservation will be valid only for 15 years. But Parliament can extend this period. The thing to note along with this is that the seats reserved for SC-ST were also for a limited period only, but it has been extended for 10 years at a time. In this way, women's reservation can also be taken forward in Parliament.
Rotation of 33 percent reserved seats for women
The bill presented by the Modi government states that after every process of delimitation, there will be rotation of 33 percent reserved seats for women. Its details will be determined by Parliament later. This constitutional amendment will authorize the government to provide reservation for women in Parliament and state assemblies. One-third of the seats in local bodies, such as panchayats and municipalities, are also reserved for women. In these, reservation of seats keeps changing in every election i.e. there is rotation. A separate law and notification will be required to determine the rotation and delimitation of seats for women's reservation. Only after this, Nari Shakti Vandan Act will be implemented in Lok Sabha and Assembly.
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