Before Saturday, the price of Brent crude oil in the international market had come to $ 84 per barrel. Everyone had predicted that crude oil would fall between 75 to 80 dollars this month. After which Indian mathematicians even started saying that petrol and diesel will start becoming cheaper from the first week of November. This fall can be more than Rs 7. There was a reason for this also. In the last 45 days, the government has reduced the price of gas cylinders twice.
In such a situation, the possibilities of petrol and diesel becoming cheaper had started rising, but the conflict between Israel and Hamas completely ruined this planning or rather, these possibilities. Experts have made one thing completely clear that fuel prices are not going to come down in the coming days. The reason for this is the instability in crude oil prices. Even though the report of Goldman Sachs has made it clear that no effect of this attack will be seen in the prices of crude oil. Even after that, possibilities of instability remain.
If Iran reacts and Israel attempts to worsen the situation in the Middle East, the situation may worsen. These are the sentiments that are keeping crude oil prices upward. However, the estimates that have been made are talking about increase in the price of crude oil. It is estimated that by mid-June the price of Brent crude oil may cross $100. Let us also tell you what is said in the Goldman report? Also, how do commodity experts view this entire scenario?
What was said in Goldman's note?
Goldman said in its note on Sunday that Brent crude could hit a century by June 2024. This means that crude oil prices can reach $100 a barrel. Whereas he also said in his note that there has been no impact on the current global oil production in this primary phase. According to the report, there has been a decline in oil prices in the last two weeks. After seeing the current scenario, there is no possibility of any relief from production cut from Saudi Arabia any time soon.
Goldman said that due to the increasing conflict, it may take time for Saudi Arabia-Israel relations to normalize. It is expected that Saudi Arabia may take more time to increase its production. According to the report, Saudi Arabia may increase its production marginally by the first quarter of 2025. It was also estimated by the bank that if Saudi Arabia keeps the crude oil production stable at 9 million barrels per day in the year 2024, then by December 2024 the price of crude oil can reach $104.
Crude oil prices will remain volatile
There may remain instability in crude oil prices. Anuj Gupta, Head of Currency and Commodity at HDFC Security, said that it is very difficult to say anything right now. Crude oil prices may go up to $95 per barrel or remain at $80 to $85 per barrel. He said that if the issue between Israel and Hamas is not resolved soon or if it continues for more than 7 days, then more volatility may be seen in prices.
It means clearly that petroleum companies and the government will not try to tamper with the prices of petrol and diesel. Common people may have to wait for some time for cheap petrol and diesel. This means that the chances of common people getting cheap petrol and diesel during the assembly elections are very less.
Current crude oil prices
If we talk about the prices of crude oil at present, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $87.40 per barrel. On October 6, the price of Brent crude oil had fallen to the day's low at $83.44 per barrel. From then till now, the prices of crude oil have seen an increase of up to five and a quarter percent. On the other hand, the price of WTI has come down to $85.37 per barrel. On October 6, the price of crude oil was at the day's low at $81.50 per barrel, since then the price of crude oil has seen an increase of 4.75 percent.
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