India, the opposition alliance formed with the intention of stopping BJP's victory chariot, got a big blow yesterday when West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee decided to contest the elections alone in Bengal, while similar news came from Punjab. But, both the states Congress took different stands regarding this. While on one hand Congress has made friendship a weapon in Punjab, on the other hand it has chosen the path of unity with Mamata in Bengal.
Seat sharing has not been decided in the opposition alliance 'INDIA' formed to contest the Lok Sabha elections. While TMC chief Mamata Banerjee has announced to contest elections alone in West Bengal, Aam Aadmi Party is also talking about contesting elections on all 13 seats in Punjab. Despite Mamata's announcement of 'Walk Alone', Congress has not yet given up hope of coordination with TMC in Bengal, but has decided to walk alone in Punjab. Congress has made a strategy to contest the 2024 elections by preparing a formula of friendship in Punjab and unity in Bengal.
The Congress leadership, considering Mamata Banerjee's politically active participation in Bengal as important, has started the initiative of political damage control to solve the knot of INDIA alliance. In Punjab, Congress is unperturbed by Aam Aadmi Party's attitude of contesting the elections alone, there is no worry visible on its forehead, while in West Bengal, by talking to the TMC chief, efforts are being made to bring the derailed seat sharing talks back on track. Is engaged in the exercise. In Bengal, Mamata is a compulsion of Congress whereas in Punjab, it is not necessary to contest elections with Aam Aadmi Party?
Congress busy in convincing Mamata Banerjee
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee wants to give only two seats to Congress out of 42 seats in the state whereas Congress wants to contest on at least 5 to 6 seats. This is the reason why Mamata announced on Wednesday that no agreement was reached with Congress regarding seat sharing, now TMC will contest the elections alone. After this statement of Mamta, Congress is on backfoot and is busy in damage control. Congress, while refraining from counter-attacking Mamata Banerjee, tried to reduce the bitterness by calling her an important role of the opposition alliance.
Congress believes that Mamata's statement does not mean that the path of unity of India in Bengal has been closed. After Mamata Banerjee's announcement, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said that India cannot imagine the alliance without Didi. Jairam Ramesh has tried to remove the resentment of Mamata and TMC by saying this. By the way, Rahul Gandhi had said on Tuesday itself that he has good relations with Congress and Mamata Banerjee and the issue of seat sharing between the two parties will be resolved through mutual talks. After this, as soon as Rahul Gandhi entered Bengal on Thursday, he said that I am happy to come to West Bengal. We are here to listen to you and stand with you.
If sources are to be believed, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge will himself talk directly to Mamata Banerjee regarding seat sharing in West Bengal so that coordination can be achieved. Rahul Gandhi will also try to woo Didi during the Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra in West Bengal. Rahul Gandhi has already said that he has a good relationship with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Unity with Mamta is necessary for Congress
The political graph of Congress is continuously falling in West Bengal. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, after contesting the elections in alliance with the Left, Congress could win only 2 seats and the vote percentage came down to 5.6 percent. Congress's account was also not opened in the 2021 assembly elections. There are a total of 42 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal and in the 2019 elections, TMC got 22, BJP 18 and Congress two. On this basis, Mamata Banerjee is talking about giving only two seats to Congress and the logic behind it is that there is a direct contest between TMC and BJP in Bengal.
Congress could win only Baharampur and Malda South Lok Sabha seats while there was a fight between BJP and TMC on the remaining seats. Congress got less than ten percent votes on 34 seats in Bengal. The results in the assembly elections were even worse for the Congress. While TMC's morale is high after the 2021 assembly elections, the challenge for Congress is to preserve its political existence. If Congress and TMC contest elections separately, then BJP can get political benefit. BJP is the second party. Congress is seeing its own benefit in going with Mamata instead of the Left, that is why Congress is trying to convince Mamata Banerjee, but wants more than two seats. In such a situation, it remains to be seen what formula emerges in the efforts for reconciliation. Congress is trying for unity with Mamata and plans to contest the elections on the same formula.
Friendship fight between Congress and AAP in Punjab
In Punjab, Aam Aadmi Party has announced to contest the elections alone while Congress is also looking at its own path. The state organization of Congress was already against coordination with Aam Aadmi Party, now Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has also announced to contest on all the 13 seats in the state. Congress is also preparing to contest elections alone on all 13 seats. That is why when Bhagwant Mann, on behalf of Aam Aadmi Party, talked about contesting the elections alone, Congress did not pay any attention to him but gave tacit approval. Former Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Singh Baghel, who was part of the seat sharing committee on behalf of Congress, said that the situation in Punjab is such that Congress and AAP are face to face.
Congress will contest the elections in Delhi by making an agreement with Aam Aadmi Party, but there will be a friendly fight in Punjab. If political analysts are to be believed, the mathematics behind this is that if Congress and Aam Aadmi Party contest the elections together in Punjab, there may be less political gain and more loss. This will send the message that the government and the opposition have reached a compromise. Bhagwant Mann government voters are angry, they can again go to Akali or BJP camp. Aam Aadmi Party and Congress have a strategy to contest elections separately, for which they are planning to try the formula of friendship.
What do the figures of 2019 say?
Congress was successful in winning 8 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections while Aam Aadmi Party won only one seat. The situation has changed after the 2022 assembly elections. After Aam Aadmi Party is in power, Congress is the opposition party while BJP is also busy in increasing its political base. The political base of Akali Dal has also reduced. By contesting elections together with Congress and Aam Aadmi Party, Akali may get a chance to re-emerge and BJP is also likely to get political benefits.
Who is stronger?
If Congress and Aam Aadmi Party contest elections separately, then Congress will be in a position to win Ludhiana, Amritsar, Sangrur, Fatehgarh Saheb, Patiala and Khandur Saheb seats. Aam Aadmi Party can easily win at least three to four seats like Anantpur Saheb, Hoshiarpur. Akali Dal is looking strong in Firozpur and Bathinda seats. There may be a triangular fight on Gurudaspur seat. BJP is trying to save its traditional seats Hoshiarpur and Gurudaspur. Apart from this, the fabric of victory is also being woven on the seats of Malwa. In such a situation, if Congress and Aam Aadmi Party contest elections together, then the situation will change. Akali Dal and BJP can create a triangular contest on almost every seat. In view of this, Congress and AAP have made a strategy to fight in a friendly manner instead of fighting together.
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