How will be the country's growth? Rating agency bid 'will decrease', RBI wrote 'better than expected'

What is the economic growth of the country now and how will it be in the future? You may be a little confused about this, because one rating agency has said it will decline, while an article by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has predicted it to be better than expected.

Estimates of two big agencies regarding the country's economic growth have come out. In one estimate, the rating agency has expressed the possibility of a decline in economic growth, while on the other hand, in an article by the Reserve Bank of India, the country's economic progress has been said to be better than expected. Let us understand this…

Yes, rating agency ICRA estimates that the country's economic growth rate will fall below 6% in the October-December quarter of the current financial year 2023-24. The main reason for this is the sharp decline in the production of Kharif crop in the country. At the same time, sowing of some crops is going to be slow in Rabi season. In the previous quarter i.e. July-September, the country's GDP growth was 7.6%.

In an article by the country's central bank RBI, the country's economic growth rate is expected to be better than expected by the end of the financial year 2023-24. Due to the government's emphasis on capital expenditure, private investment has started increasing in the country, this is good for the economy. This article has been published in the Bulletin of the Reserve Bank of India. This article has been written by the team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.

Why is ICRA afraid of declining growth?

Rating agency ICRA said in its report that the growth rate on annual basis in 'ICRA Business Activity Monitor' has declined for the second consecutive month in December 2023. It has come down to 8.1 percent, its lowest level in 6 months. The country's growth rate in November 2023 was 9.6 percent. The reasons for this are the decrease in business activities after festivals in the country, decrease in demand for electricity and petrol with the onset of winter season, etc.

Why was RBI called 'better than expected'?

On the other hand, in the RBI article, the economic growth rate in 2023-24 has been predicted to be much better than expected. In the article written on the subject 'State of the Economy', it has been said that there are different possibilities for growth in the global economy in the near future. Emerging market economies, led by Asia, are set to outperform the rest of the world.

The capital expenditure of the government is increasing the potential production in the country. Whereas the actual production is more than this. Macro indicators related to the country's economy are stable. In such a situation, the country should maintain this momentum by maintaining the GDP growth rate at least 7% in 2024-25.