Prediction made, RBI will not reduce loan EMI for 6 months

Japanese brokerage said on Monday that the Reserve Bank may keep the monetary policy frozen till June. This means that there will be no relief in EMIs at all before the policy meet to be held in August. During this time, a new government will come in the country and the full budget of the country will be revealed.

Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25 percent at the end of January? Is it possible that a week after the Fed's decision, i.e. on February 8, the RBI MPC will also reduce the interest rate by 0.25 percent? If yes, then you are in trouble. Three RBI policy meetings are going to be held between February and the end of July. Even in these three meetings, RBI can keep its policy frozen. This means that from February to July, there is little chance for the common people to get relief in EMI. This has been predicted by Japanese brokerage company Nomura itself. Let us also tell you what Nomura has said.

There may be a reduction of one percent

Japanese brokerage said on Monday that the Reserve Bank may keep the monetary policy frozen till June. This means that there will be no relief in EMIs at all before the policy meet to be held in August. During this time, a new government will come in the country and the full budget of the country will be revealed. Nomura said that the interest rate may be reduced in the policy meet in August this year. The brokerage reiterated its earlier estimate of expecting a rate cut from August. Also said that RBI can cut the rate by one percent in the policy meet in August.

Inflation may reduce

Nomura said in its note that core inflation has come down to 3.8 percent in December, and also said that the annual growth of super-core inflation has come down to 3 percent from its estimate. The brokerage said that retail inflation is likely to come down by about 5 percent in January. Whereas the core inflation has been estimated at 3.5 percent. There is a need to move towards an easy regime, the note said, adding that the RBI may choose to ease liquidity, change the stance to neutral and cut rates as part of this. The note also said that even though growth is strong at the moment, there is a need to keep an eye on further risks.

Since when are the policy rates frozen?

At present, RBI's policy rates are high. Also, 5 policy rate meetings have been held since February 2023, but there has been no change in the interest rates. According to experts, inflation still remains a matter of concern for RBI. This means that interest rates can be kept frozen for a long time. RBI continuously increased interest rates from May 2022 to February 2023 and increased the repo rate by 2.50 percent. Right now all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, which has said that it will cut interest rates three times in the year 2024.